🔗 Share this article

Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award follows a simple script. It commonly serves as a type of apology. We regret we underestimated your team in our pre-campaign predictions.

In theory, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who oversaw the largest turnaround receives the award. In reality, it sparks an annual argument about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding excellent coaching or merely the greatest surprise.

However the latest competition is profoundly different. The pool of contenders is remarkably talented. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The NFL has been messy, with recent conference champions falling away and recent underperformers improving collectively. In an ordinary year, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. But in such a chaotic and fun season, he's facing several other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the projected vote ought to look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love QBs. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you solve a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Given a proper environment, the QB has been given the chance to showcase his rare talent. From midseason onward, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's prolonged performance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system rather than going rogue. It is an offense designed entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that springs wide-open targets everywhere. Williams has capitalized. And when easy reads haven't been available, he's been able to conjure magic out of nothing.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive philosophy. Virtually each decision – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the building with the level of pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a offensive wizard but the kind of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a typical season, he would be the overwhelming favorite. But the current is not a typical campaign!

Where Johnson's candidacy runs a bit unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense currently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several wins worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is established for sustained winning. However Johnson comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's another rookie head coach who has masterminded a dramatic resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the league in EPA per play.

What's more notably, Coen has excelled at the leadership aspects, which was not a guarantee following his initial public introduction and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the perfect coaching mix of youth and veteran savvy, Coen hired newbies. From the head coach himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a their job on the fly. But he has pulled the entire group and all elements into sync.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the rails. A midseason setback caused the team stumbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. He did not. Instead, he streamlined things. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking reliable ones. The coach refocused the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's number three seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have ended the campaign in October. Instead, it defined it. By the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has cooled off after that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, putting him only one place ahead of peers.

Still